Anyone who follows Gartner’s regular “Hype Cycles” will inevitably get a feeling for the up-and-down cycle of excitement and disappointment that characterizes new technologies and trends. A reasonable person may pose a question that legitimately arises in such situations: Is this truly a breakthrough in technology – or just the same old stuff cleverly repackaged?
I think it’s both – it’s the repackaging of a breakthrough model which holds some important truth – illustrating how a certain technology trigger hype and over-enthusiasm, leading to disillusionment when it becomes obvious that expectations were too high and finally entering a more realistic phase of practical readiness. “However, as Thomas Ryberg points out, we genuinely need such phases of over-enthusiasm, grand-claims and hype as they generate a lot of activity, interest, attention and a lot of (crazy) experimentation. It creates passionate debates between skeptics and proponents and space for fiery souls to engage in all kinds of activities and changes e.g. in their ways of teaching and interacting with students. All the experiments might not work, but some of them might fuel the steep ride up the slope of enlightenment (and we equally learn from what did not work!).”
What this means to us? That the best place is not always on the peak, even more if we talk about technologies. Take for example JOB SCHEDULING and the Hype Cycle for IT Operations Management from June 2008. You will find it on the long tail reaching a level of maturity. Which means that the speed is accelerating. It’s too late to jump on this train, but if you managed to get seated already, you really can enjoy the ride.